Affliction: Banned pre-fight analysis and predictions
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- July
- 18
It’s casual Friday here. Most days are casual here, but today I am donning my Fedor Emelianenko Affliction shirt. I don’t even think he is going to win this Saturday, but the shirt is pretty cool, and I want to show my support for the organization.
This weekend is filled with a lot of MMA. I already gave my UFC analysis, and I am excited to watch that card, but I will be watching Affliction live while DVR’ing the UFC. I like the fact that the UFC offers free events on SpikeTV, but they hit you with an onslaught of commercials. It takes you out of the fight. Plus they don’t show the fighter entrances and that really annoys me.
I already gave my Ultimate Fight Night 14 analysis here, so here goes my Affliction: Banned predictions.
Middleweights
-Matt Lindland vs. Fabio Negao
Fabio Negao , one of the lesser-known names on the card, has a very tough test ahead of him when he opposes one of the best middleweights in the world, Matt “The Law” Lindland. Lindland has not fought in well over a year, so that may play a key factor in dragging this fight into the later rounds, but I don’t think the layoff will contribute to a loss for Lindland. Negao is not going to throw anything at Lindland that he hasn’t seen before. I think the two fighters will probably stand and exchange for a bit. Lindland will secure a takedown in the later rounds of the fight and ground and pound Negao into submission or TKO.
Prediction: Matt Lindland TKO/KO – Round 3
Light heavyweights
-Renato “Babalu” Sobral vs. Mike Whitehead
Thanks to DavidHeath getting the life nearly choked out of him, we haven’t seen Babalu fight on a big stage since he was released from the UFC. Now Babalu finds himself opposite the red-hot light heavyweight Mike Whitehead. Since losing a unanimous decision to Keith Jardine at UFC 57, Mike Whitehead has been on fire. He has won his last 12 fights, finishing a majority of those fights by submission. Renato Sobral has some of the slickest BJJ in the game, though, and the man is a submission machine. I think that Babalu is going to find a way to get this fight to the ground, enticing Whitehead to play a little jits with him, and eventually secure one of his trademark chokes to end the fight.
Prediction: Renato Sobral – Submission: Choke Round 2
Heavyweights
-Josh Barnett vs. Pedro Rizzo
This is one of those fights where the rising star gets to avenge a loss from earlier in his career. Pedro Rizzo is a former UFC heavyweight champion and owns a KO victory over Josh Barnett. Rizzo is a shadow of his former self, though. Since that knockout, Barnett has made a name for himself over in Japan. Barnett is one of the better catch/submission wrestlers in the heavyweight division and I doubt he will keep this fight standing. The fight should go to the ground, and Barnett should eventually secure a submission.
Prediction: Josh Barnett – Submission: Arm Lock Round 1
Heavyweights
-Andrei Arlovski vs. Ben Rothwell
Another intriguing match up. Once known as one of the most vicious heavyweights in the division, the hype around Andrei Arlovski died down after Tim Sylvia landed a punch to Andre’s jaw that put the “Pitbull†in la-la land. He seems to have picked up the pace in his last few fights, but he has a really tough test in front of him. Ben Rothwell is a huge heavyweight that likes to bang, much like Tim Sylvia. He is riding a 13-fight win streak and has 17 KO/TKO’s to his credit.
Under normal circumstances I would give this fight to Rothwell, but rumor has it that Andrei has been training with famed boxing coach Freddy Roach, the boxing coach of Oscar De La Hoya. I am hoping that Roach has reminded Arlovski how to throw his hands as violently and ill intended as he once did.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski – TKO/KO Round 2
Heavyweights
-Fedor Emelianenko vs. Tim Sylvia
Well, here is the fight we have all been waiting for. The Russian sambo sensation Fedor Emelianenko is finally stepping in the ring with legitimate talent. Lets face it. Fedor has not fought anyone worth fighting in the last 3 years. The most legitimate name he fought was Matt Lindland, a career middleweight.
Tim Sylvia has been salivating for this fight. I have to believe he is training his ass off. He wants the world to know that he is a legitimate heavyweight, and one of the best mixed martial artists in the world. I think he is going to do everything he can to keep this fight off of the ground. Fedor likes to use that arm bar and we all know what happened to Tim against Frank Mir.
I’m not even a Tim Sylvia fan. I typically find his fights boring, but he is a legitimate threat to anyone he opposes.
I think Tim is going to use his long jab to keep Fedor outside of takedown range. His cardio is good, so I think he will utilize this strategy to take this fight in the later rounds. I don’t think this fight will be terribly exciting; Sylvia will do just enough to squeak a decision past “The Last Emperorâ€, silencing his critics world wide.
Prediction: Tim Sylvia : Split Decision
This entry was posted
on Friday, July 18th, 2008 at 1:01 pm by Larry Vollmer.
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Whoah. Personally, I gave Silvia the “puncher’s chance” and figured the fight would end with a Fedor victory via first- or second-round armbar, but a 36-second mauling? That was just ridiculous.
I don’t think there’s any question now that Fedor is the top heavyweight in the world, I think the only question is, who does he fight next? And who stands a chance of actually giving him a good fight for the fans? I’m glad he didn’t sign with UFC all those months back—he’s beaten Nog twice, he stomped Herring, and putting Frank Mir in a ring with Fedor is like bringing a boxcutter to a tank battle.
He has victories over Mark Coleman, Mark Hunt, Mirko Filopovic and Matt Lindland in the past three years. I think it’s just his refusal to go to the UFC that has people saying he’s fought weak competition.
But the awesome thing is maybe we’ll see Fedor vs Arvlovski or Fedor vs Barnett. The undercard was great…I really hope Banned got enough buys that another Affliction fight can happen…the arena looked pretty packed, but it was hard to tell how much of that was attendance and how much was lightning.
And the Anderson Silva knockout? DAMN!!!
What a great night for MMA.
Wow, is all I can say. I am now ready to bow to Fedor. He completely dismantled Tim Sylvia.
Spider Silva is unreal.
My highlight of the night, though, was seeing the OLD Andrei Arlovski . The vicious, brutal, and relentless fighter of old was back in that affliction ring and I couldn’t be happier.
I;d like to see AA vs Fedor more then Barnett vs Fedor, but I’d take either.
An update: Looks like Affliction was a sell-out, with 14 thousand + seats filled, and the “bar buys” for the PPV were pretty close to what UFC gets for its PPV shows. I haven’t seen anything on the standard PPV buys yet, but I’m sure that will be released soon.
Also, Fedor’s camp is supposedly saying Fedor-Arlovski will be the next match-up:
http://dreamfighters.com/site/
It’s unconfirmed, but if it’s true that would be a great fight. I think Fedor’s manager said they’re looking at a September date for the next event.
That should be a good one. Also, the fight is rumored to be in Atlantic City – I will be there for sure.