UFC 86 pre-fight analysis and predictions
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UFC 86: Jackson vs. Griffin is an upcoming mixed martial arts event to be held by the Ultimate Fighting Championship on July 5, 2008, at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The title bout between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Forrest Griffin, coaches on The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rampage vs. Team Forrest, will be for Jackson’s UFC light heavyweight championship.
There is not a lot of hype coming into this PPV, so lets get right to my predictions.
Main Card Bouts:
-Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin
-Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle
-Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau
-Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio
-Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida
Middleweights
-Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida
Two UFC veterans step into the octagon to kick the night off, the heavy-handed Patrick Cote and the Renzo Gracie black belt Ricardo Almeida. Both of these guys have fought in the UFC for years, and have had ups and downs in their career. Both fighters were ousted from the organization after a couple of losses early on in their careers, but they have both worked their way back to the UFC and will now meet inside the cage in a match that will bump somebody up one chain link closer to Anderson Silva. Ricardo Almeida has great submissions. In his UFC homecoming last February, he choked out Rob Yundt in just over a minute. The submission fighter is riding a 7-fight win streak and will face a very tough test in a red-hot Patrick Cote. Cote is riding a 4-fight win streak, with 3 of those fights taking place in the UFC. Cote has matured a lot since his stint on the “The Ultimate Fighter: The Comebackâ€. He has a lot of power in his hands, and just don’t see him being taken down in submitted in this fight. Almeida has never knocked anyone out. He goes to decision or submits his opponent. I think that Cote will be throwing bombs left and right and eventually catch Almeida, sending him to the sleep on the octagon canvas.
Prediction: Patrick “The Predator†Cote – TKO/KO Round 2
Lightweights
-Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio
This is a bad fight for Marcus Aurelio. This guy is a great fighter. After dropping 3 straight decisions to Mitsuhiro Ishida, Takanori Gomi and Clay Guida, he got himself on the winning path by knocking out Luke Caudillo and submitting Ryan Roberts. Now “Maximus†Aurelio finds himself opposite the strong wrestler, and decision grinder, Tyson Griffin. Here is how I see this match going – Griffin goes for repeated take downs, and eventually puts Aurelio on his back. The submission savvy Aurelio pulls guard and works for submissions while eating hammer fists from Tyson Griffin. A few stand ups, some more take downs, and 15 minutes later Tyson Griffin wins a unanimous decision.
Prediction: Tyson Griffin – Unanimous Decision Round 3
Lightweights
-Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau
Both of these guys are coming off of losses, although Stevenson’s loss was pretty significant. Stevenson worked his way up the lightweight ladder. He defeated 4 really tough opponents to get a shot at the vacant UFC lightweight title, and was utterly manhandled by BJ Penn. It is going to be interesting to see if Joe Stevenson has mentally rebounded from that loss, and if he is ready to work his way back to a UFC lightweight title shot. Gleison Tibau is no slouch. He is a pretty good submission fighter and has enough gas to go the distance with Stevenson. If Stevenson comes in strong and focused, he will win this match. The big question is, where will his head be?
Prediction: Joe Stevenson – Unanimous Decision Round 3
Welterweights
-Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle
One of my least favorite fighters is taking on one of my favorites. Koscheck gets on my nerves. I couldn’t of been happier when GSP beat him at his own game and out wrestled him for three straight rounds. Koscheck looks to rebound from that loss when he takes on “Chris “Lights Out†Lytle. Chris Lytle is a guy with great stand up and great submissions. His take down defense isn’t so hot, though, and we saw that with his fight with Matt Hughes. If Koscheck wants to win this match, all he has to do is watch the Hughes/Lytle fight and utilize a similar game plan. Koscheck’s striking isn’t any good. His stance is wide and his punches are looping so he won’t want to stand with Lytle. Lytle has great kickboxing and won’t tolerate Koscheck’s unorthodox style. Lytle’s never been submitted and I don’t see Koscheck knocking him out, being as Lytle has only lost by TKO two times in 45 pro fights. You are probably sensing a pattern by now, but I think Josh Koscheck is going to grind out a decision by repeatedly taking Lytle down.
Prediction: Josh Koscheck – Unanimous Decision Round 3
UFC Light Heavyweight Championship
-Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin
Forrest is a tough guy, and he is good at a lot of things, but he isn’t great at any one thing. Forrest is a lot bigger then Rampage, so I don’t see Page going for repeated takedowns. Rampages’ boxing is a lot better then Griffin’s so I see Rampage approaching this fight much like the Dan Henderson bout.
After watching the punishment that Forrest Griffin is able to endure in some of his past fights, I used to think that it was impossible to knock Griffin out. That is , until , Keith Jardine stepped into the octagon and knocked Forrest silly. I am pretty sure Rampage and Juanito Ibarra have watched that fight a few times in training camp.
While Griffin looked pretty good against Shogun Rua, he had a hell of a time with Rampage’s training partner, Hector Ramirez (who?). Juanito Ibarra has already trained one of his fighters for Forrest Griffin, and has learned from his mistakes, which were few and far between. Now Ibarra puts his best fighter, Rampage Jackson, in the cage with Griffin and the result should be a lot different this time.
I think this is going to be a boxing match, for the most part, with Jackson eventually catching Forrest on the chin and sending him to the canvas.
Prediction: Quinton “Rampage†Jackson – KO/TKO Round 3
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008 at 11:38 am by Larry Vollmer.
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you got faced in the main event
Forrest won the 2nd round and threw a lot of weak leg kicks. That’s it.
Rampage connected on more punches, with more power, more frequently.
It was a close fight, but I think a lot of people were genuinely baffled that the fight was given to Forrest, especially with a unanimous decision.
The loud boos from the crowd pretty much confirmed that response.
only Dana Whites favorite poster boy can get a title fight and win the title by wining only one round out of five. Is this what UFC is coming to?
was the forest vs. rampage fight payed off? sence when can you win one round and take the fight unanimous?
DC is right forest won the 2nd round but did not finish rampage.
- Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin
R1 – Jackson stunned Griffin with an uppercut Griffin came firing back. Jackson dropped Griffin with an uppercut and worked him over to the cage. Griffin worked back to his feet and both fighters are throwing bombs. 10-9 for Quinton Jackson.
R2 – Griffin landed an outside leg kick that hurt Jackson. Griffin clinches him and thowing several knees to Jackson’s head nothing landed. Griffin follows Jackson down into Jackson’s half guard and could not pass Jacksons open half gard with hert leg. Griffin finally moved to side control and atempted on an americana. Griffin is controling Jackson on the ground. Griffin mounted Jackson and could not do any damage. Griffin got Jackson for the better part of the final two minutes of the round. 10-8 for Forrest Griffin.
R3 – The pace slowed in the third with Griffin trying work more kicks and Jackson trying to load up and end it in an exchange. Jackson staggered Griffin with a right hand but Jackson cant charge forward to finish Griffin dew to his leg. The fight has turned into each fighter picking their spots to try to flurry on the other. Jackson chasing after Griffin as the round ended. 10-9 for Jackson.
R4 – Griffin came out moving forward but in an exhcange, Jackson landed a combination to Griffin forcing Griffin to clinch. Jackson lands in top position where Griffin applied a triangle. Jackson stood up picking Griffin up and slipt his way out of the submission. Jackson lands punches and elbows before Griffin gets back to his feet eating a punch in the process. Jackson landed a right hand but Griffin is still standing again Jackson cant charge forward to finish Griffin. Griffin is extremly batterd bleeding from his eyebrow Jackson lands a combination as the round ends. 10-9 for Jackson.
R5 – They’re standing toe-to-toe in the center of the octagon. Griffin lands leg kick and Jackson answers with a right hand. The multitude of leg kicks rfom the 2nd round have taken it’s toll on Jackson. Jackson cant chase him Both fighters just threw bombs for the final half minute. 10-9 for Jackson.
– Forrest Griffin is givin a victory Def. Quinton Jackson by unanimous decision at 5:00, R5
- Quinton Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin
R1 – Jackson stunned Griffin with an uppercut Griffin came firing back. Jackson dropped Griffin with an uppercut and worked him over to the cage. Griffin worked back to his feet and both fighters are throwing bombs. 10-9 for Quinton Jackson.
R2 – Griffin landed an outside leg kick that hurt Jackson. Griffin clinches him and thowing several knees to Jackson’s head nothing landed. Griffin follows Jackson down into Jackson’s half guard and could not pass Jacksons open half gard with hert leg. Griffin finally moved to side control and atempted on an americana. Griffin is controling Jackson on the ground. Griffin mounted Jackson and could not do any damage. Griffin got Jackson for the better part of the final two minutes of the round. 10-8 for Forrest Griffin.
R3 – The pace slowed in the third with Griffin trying work more kicks and Jackson trying to load up and end it in an exchange. Jackson staggered Griffin with a right hand but Jackson cant charge forward to finish Griffin dew to his leg. The fight has turned into each fighter picking their spots to try to flurry on the other. Jackson chasing after Griffin as the round ended. 10-9 for Jackson.
R4 – Griffin came out moving forward but in an exhcange, Jackson landed a combination to Griffin forcing Griffin to clinch. Jackson lands in top position where Griffin applied a triangle. Jackson stood up picking Griffin up and slipt his way out of the submission. Jackson lands punches and elbows before Griffin gets back to his feet eating a punch in the process. Jackson landed a right hand but Griffin is still standing again Jackson cant charge forward to finish Griffin. Griffin is extremly batterd bleeding from his eyebrow Jackson lands a combination as the round ends. 10-9 for Jackson.
R5 – They’re standing toe-to-toe in the center of the octagon. Griffin lands leg kick and Jackson answers with a right hand. The multitude of leg kicks rfom the 2nd round have taken it’s toll on Jackson. Jackson cant chase him Both fighters just threw bombs for the final half minute. 10-9 for Jackson.
– Forrest Griffin is givin a victory Def. Quinton Jackson by unanimous decision at 5:00, R5
So we all agree, this fight was fixed.
It’s like a friend of mine said, “You can’t go to a decision against Forrest Griffin.” It was in the best marketing interests of Dana White and the UFC to “legitimize” TUF and pave the way for another possible title shot for Chuck Liddell. A lot of people are saying Lyoto Machida will get a crack at Griffin, and if he does, he’ll win. But does anyone honestly think Dana White will allow that?
Of course, a fix and a nice bonus for Rampage explains why he wasn’t all that bummed after the fight. He knew what was going to happen. It’ll be interesting, if he eventually leaves the UFC, to hear what he has to say about fixed fights. After all, he had some things to say about Pride, but Pride was never as blatantly predetermined as this match.
I don’t know if the fight was fixed.
Check out this post:
http://mma.lohudblogs.com/2008/07/07/i-am-very-dissapointed-in-rampage-jackson/
And let me know what you guys think. I’d love to hear your opinions.
I just responded to that one :P
Most of all, I’m disappointed that UFC seems to be taking cues from Vince McMahon and EliteXC. When marketing becomes more important than fighting, the fans suffer.
They have to stop delaying title fights for the TUF series.